Dr. Beas will conduct fieldwork, database management and statistical analyses in order to characterize the state of the ecological communities in Baja California kelp forests, assess the initial effects of established MPAs, and contribute to informing long-term monitoring of MPAs. In addition, the observations generated in this effort will be used to further inform the Kelpforest species interactions database (http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu). The latter will be a key process to parameterize ecological network models of the system. Dr. Micheli will coordinate and supervise the project activities, analysis and the report of results generated from this effort. It is expected that at least two papers will result from this work.
Baja California Monitoring Dataset Management. In the first two months, the data collected by the BCMP will be synthetized and aggregated in a database management system. These data will be processed and administered in closed collaboration with COBIs personnel and with Dr. Micheli and Dr. Charles Boch at Stanford University. During this time, research questions and priorities for data analyses will be defined and vetted with Stanford and COBI partners.
Preliminary data analysis. During the third month, a series of data mining analyses on the BCMP dataset will be conducted. These preliminary analyses will be used to investigate patterns and further refine the questions and plan for statistical analyses.
Ecosystem indicator examples. Starting in month 4, analyses will be conducted identify the most sensitive and robust ecological indicators of climate and oceanographic variability, and of reserve effects (e.g., species abundance, demographic metrics, community structure metrics). One possibility, to be further explored for its potential to produce useful information, is to expand comparisons to selected sites of California, using PISCO and/or ReefCheck data.
BCMP planning and execution. Dr. Beas will participate in parts of the summer and fall seasons of the annual monitoring program.
Recommendations for enhancing the current monitoring protocol. A series of meetings and workshops with fishing cooperatives, COBI, Reef Check and the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans (PISCO) will be organized by Dr. Beas to provide a list of recommendations to enhance the scope and sustainability of the monitoring program adapted to temperate reefs off Baja California. At these meetings, results of analyses (see above, points 2-3) and of a parallel review of indicators conducted by Ms. Butner and Dr. Micheli will be presented, and different options for the design of an effective, efficient, and sustainable monitoring program will be discussed by participants.
During meetings, participants will also discuss and provide feedback to a proposal for using ecological network modeling to predict reserve effects. Partners will assess whether there is the potential to develop these ideas further, in a possible second phase of the project.
Throughout the length of the project, Dr. Beas, Ms. Butner and COBI´s personnel will train and supervise undergraduate students and volunteers in the population of the kelpforest database. This database will be informed with natural history traits, demographic and species interactions of the species present in the Baja California kelp forests, necessary to parameterize ecosystem network models.
Reports and results. During the last three months of the appointment, results will be presented in a report (to be delivered to COBI by November 30, 2015) and scientific manuscripts. It is expected that two manuscripts will be produced through this work. At least one of these will be submitted before the end of the contract. It is important to note that the focus and scope of each paper might change based on results of preliminary analyses. For example, results might indicate that combining an assessment of reserve and climate variability effects in a single paper would be more effective. These decisions will be discussed with Dr. Micheli and COBI partners. Products